Marketing communications services are usually one of the first things to get cut in a down economy, and also one of the last things to come back (image: clearing the gate by cmaccubbin). The current freeze (more like slow flow, as contracts are starting to come in again) is something many executives and I talk about on the back channel. Most want to know when it’s going to end. I wonder if it is, or if this is just the new competitive reality.

We’ve had a big party over the past decade on credit, and now it’s time to pay the debt. In my opinion, and based on many reports I read, this downturn seems to be more of a severe correction than a true recession. Meaning this contraction of markets is forcing expenditures to be made on hard cash as opposed to speculation and credit. Even when credit flows again, organizations will be less quick to use credit to fund their business operations. In the end, that’s a good thing as businesses will be stronger for it.

In the short term — meaning the next couple of years — this type of hard competitive business environment will continue for marketing services companies, consultants and job seekers. Contracts are now starting to be doled out and some markets are starting to do better, but they are much more competitive. As the bottom becomes more secure over the next few months, the more risk adverse and those that know they have to market will also start spending. A slower ebb of business is resuming.

Some companies will take a long time to return to marketing. Why this is, I don’t know. It’s really hard to make money if your customers don’t know you’re out there. But in every down economy, some companies do this, and they pay the price in market share. What’s important is for agencies and consultants to identify these companies quickly and move forward to work with smarter organizations that understand the value of marketing services.

To effectively compete, marketing services companies and consultants alike will have to be much more customer focused. Their offerings — as many have discussed — will need to be less experimental, and more ROI oriented.

The sharp and nimble will not only make it, but they will thrive. They will capitalize on the opportunity presented now. They will offer the right kind of marketing services that distinguish their organization and create meaningful growth for their clients and partners.

It’s an interesting time. Welcome to the new competitive reality.

It’s apparent that we’re in for a deep, long recession. As our leadership rallies to fight the economic tide, those of us with businesses (or individual careers) need to continue moving forward. With an eye towards the near future market of 2009, here’s my projections for the top six opportunities in social media next year (image by Adelswood).

1) Government: Obama is in and that means government 2.0 will start becoming a rapid adoption communications vehicle for federal, and then state and local will follow. It’s inevitable that Obama will want government to adopt the incredible grassroots tools that swept him into office. The key here isn’t building grassroots networks to get the word out; it’s to help communities and the government connect to facilitate faster more intelligent governance.

Tip for non DC types: Because of the political appointee and government contracting cycle, don’t expect to see any real dollars flow until bare minimum 3Q next year, more likely 4Q. October marks the beginning of the federal fiscal year and the first full year of spending under the big O. For those of you who need a fast brush up on federal procurement, check out my friend Jimmy Baker’s upcoming book on the topic.

2) Maintenance: Whether it’s auto or house repair, people will want to fix ‘er up rather than throw it out and buy a new one. Cost becomes a big issue, which can become a boon for the right companies that can market themselves intelligently. Social media tools can be used to provide value added conversations on how to maintain and repair.

Think Midas, Home Depot, Duron paints, etc. The business case is obvious, now it becomes a question of whether their executives have the vision and foresight to invest in marketing to maximize their opportunity.

3) Booze: Yup, one thing that’s historically true about troubled times is a boom market for producers of hard liquor, beer and wine. Get to know your local maker of spirits and engage with the community on stories about good times! Or how to brew your own. Or whatever. This one’s a no-brainer for anyone with the slightest bit of creativity.

4) Security: Bad times bring another traditional increase: Crime. That means security products — both commercial and personal — will be in higher demand. Related corporate social media can help people through these times by facilitating conversation on the topic… thus providing value add to the community.

5) Causes: With bad times come great causes. No communication tool set is better positioned to activate the public and engaged in grassroots education than social media. I expect to see (as well as participate in) some fantastic campaigns as cause communicators rely on these tools more and more frequently.

6) Technology companies: According to the Washington Post, six of the ten most capitalized companies still standing are tech companies. We’ve experienced some volatility with smaller tech cos this year, but some of our most stable accounts are also tech cos. There’s no question the tech sector will experience more volatility as the long awaited culling of un-needed or broken social technology cos happens, but good companies with strong solutions will continue thriving. Tech will do better than most sectors.

Would you add any other verticals to the 2009 “hot list?”

It shouldn’t surprise anyone to see posts titled "The Role of Ethical Brands in a Down Economy," "The Four Social Media Questions You Must Answer During an Economic Downturn," "In A Down Economy, Tomorrow’s Leaders Are Born Today," "Will Social Media Help PR Weather the Storm," and "25 Ways Social Media Prepares You for a Social Media Downturn." All of these respected marketers have the recession in mind (image by collective nouns).

There were some great insights in these articles, most of which I liked Todd Defren’s statistical based analysis showing online marketing will be the bright spot in communications. I disagreed w/ some of Chris Brogan’s 25 ways (though I love Chris), but mostly because no one knows how social media functions and works in a recession. I think reliance on brass tacks, on hard core value building and ROI is what matters now.

What is clear: This new media world will see an even stronger focus from corporate as big ad spends get cut and marketers seek guerilla oriented tactics. But things will change, and online communicators are going to be forced to act differently.  

I’ve been through one of these before, in the telecom industry which suffered an industry specific depression from 2000-2. During that time I actually excelled and grew a book of business, keeping more than a dozen of my fellows employed. So while I will be deploying social media for the first time in a  recession, I’ve got a few experiences that are guiding my thoughts during this particular time:

Here are five ways I anticipate this recession will affect us:

1) ROI must become the song. If you can’t measure or you think page impressions represents an accurate measurement for marketing communications initiatives, mail it in. No company will engage in that anymore. Integration with calls to action must be used to produce tangible results.

2) Similarly, social media consultants will be forced to produce or they will bomb. Now more than ever it’s about ROI, not Facebook friends.  

3) Independent, positive thinkers will do better. They will not be susceptible to media driven BS and fear mongering. Consider this ridiculous CCN story that liberally uses poll terms to claim 60% of Americans say depression is likely. Talk about tabloid journalism. Yet, these stories can inspire panic and that is the great challenge.

Rich Becker makes a good point, "When economic times seem tough, you tend to want to work with those who seem largely unaffected." In his post, he was speaking about the newspaper industry, but it may as well be your company. Executives and individuals will need to wield a sober, pragmatic approach to the market, and provide actionable ways to grow their business. More than anything people and cultures that win will be the positive ones with real value to offer their employers, their clients and the world in general.

4) It’s time for millenials to grow up in the workplace. This is Gen Y’s first recession, and to date they have shown heavy demands for senior executive access and mentorship, lifestyle choices, collaboration, high salaries, plush bennies, transitory career paths, and steady, significant pay increases. More than anything it has been incumbent on employers to attract and retain them with these many cultural aspects. Well, the coin has flipped.  In tough times, it’s incumbent on the employee to prove value, not the employer. I sense that many over-privileged divas are heading for a rude awakening.

5) More noise.  As companies abandon traditional, costly tactics and crowd the marketplace with their new social media initiatives we will likely see a new nightmare of corporate crud. Social media initiatives must offer immediate, clear strong value to communities, or they will click and flee. Substance is paramount! Tolerance for BS gimmicks will evaporate. Last recession, a similar noise level occurred with email marketing, that time’s cheap marketing elixir.

A Time of Pain

Regardless of how social media fares as a sub sector, I believe from a societal perspective that this will be a widespread recession that will take a good long time to get better.  Poor fiduciary lending has affected our entire financial industry and in ways that we’ve not seen in modern times before under the Federal Reserve. This will impact all businesses and all sectors, from credit to actual sales. My prayers and thoughts are with those who will be affected.

Further, more than any economic downturn in my life, this will hurt the lower middle income and low income classes.  Consider the impact high heating costs, transportation costs, lost jobs from construction, cut state spending, etc., will make on blue collar America.

There will be great challenges ahead that supersede "making money," and I encourage readers to think about what we can do to help as individuals. It is a time for charity, a time for helping brothers and sisters regardless of race, creed, class, religion. Economic pain affects all, and no American should go hungry.

Related posts:

• Recession 2.0
• Using Social Media to Communicate in Tough Times (HR Perspective)
• Accelerating through the Recession

Eyes and Ears: Ask Employees to Listen

Feedback is more valuable than ever, and it’s never too late to track conversations. Whether a direct comment or overheard, input from stakeholders should flow across silos and be addressed. [Image credit: "Listening Post" by Fenchurch!]

What mechanisms do you have in place to monitor references of your organization? Is there a point person (community manager) or team paying attention to your brand mentions? Who is responding to feedback and how?

Hands and Feet: Ask Employees to Engage

Your organization might have stellar strategy, tactics and metrics for social media engagement, but it has to give up the microphone. The voice belongs to your employees. It is time to give them leg room to do more leg work.  [Image by JosephGilbert.org.]

“What if someone says the wrong thing to the wrong person?” There are countless best practices to help guide the way. The troops don’t need to be serving as brand ambassadors on Second Life, per say. But they should be trusted to exude politeness and enthusiasm for your mission wherever they may roam.

Hint: Good Manners Are Free, Fast and Fruitful [Image by Lady_K]

• Please: Your network is bigger than you think. Whether asking for a favor or a donation, correspondence should not be limited to email and direct mail. “The ask” can be broadcast by one (or many) to one (or many).
• Thank you: Expressions of gratitude should be profuse. (“Nice to meet you” is an alternate form of the common “Gracias.”) Recognition and appreciation can lead to higher engagement.
• Congratulations: Kudos are as welcome as the sound of your own name. Everyone likes to be affirmed, for both the big and small things.

It’s one thing to ask, thank and congratulate through private messages social network. But the true power comes through public requests and public affirmation. Getting name-dropped by mutual friends and followers is more likely to drive a response your way. Who can make this happen quickly? Your employees.

An organic, bottom up networking mentality will be a competitive lever from this day forward. Let go and go learn.